Senior Manager, Forecasting & Analytics

What You'll Do Forecasting & Accuracy Build and maintain rolling revenue forecasts at the SKU / channel / geography level across Aura's portfolio, using SQL-based data and statistical methods Refresh forecasts on a regular cadence and ahead of major launches, promotions, and peak periods, incorporating POS, sell-through, marketing performance, and inventory signals Track forecast accuracy (MAPE, bias, WAPE) at the SKU / channel / week grain, set internal accuracy targets, and continuously refine methodology Use statistical forecasting techniques to generate baselines and identify opportunities for model improvement Marketing & Channel Analytics Analyze channel-level acquisition economics (CPA/CAC, payback) and surface where spend is - and isn't - driving profitable demand Quantify the demand impact of campaigns, promotions, and launches, and fold those signals into the forecast rather than treating them as noise Partner with Marketing to pressure-test attribution and channel-mix assumptions against actual sell-through, and support incrementality / holdout testing where it matters Maintain the link between marketing spend, demand signal, and forecast as a repeatable input, not a one-off analysis Business Insight & Decision Support Review and validate forecasts in collaboration with Sales, Marketing, and Product, ensuring alignment with product launches, promotional calendars, and market trends Prepare executive-ready analysis explaining forecasts, variances, channel efficiency, and recommendations, and provide regular updates to the CRO and Revenue Leadership team Champion automation and process improvements that make the team's reporting and analysis faster and more reliable Required Bachelor's degree in Business, Statistics, Economics, Data Science, Marketing, or a related field 5–7+ years in revenue/marketing analytics, forecasting, business intelligence, or a comparable analytical role - ideally in consumer goods, consumer electronics, or DTC/e-commerce Demonstrated ownership of a forecast or analytical model across multiple channels, with a track record of measurable accuracy or business impact Expert-level proficiency in Excel or Google Sheets (advanced functions, pivot tables, data modeling, large dataset manipulation) Working proficiency in SQL - comfortable querying source systems and BI tools (Metabase, Looker, Snowflake, BigQuery, or similar) without depending on an analyst Comfort working with marketing performance and channel-economics data (CPA/CAC, ROAS) as analytical and forecast inputs Strong analytical judgment with attention to detail and the ability to translate data into clear, actionable business recommendations Excellent communication skills, with the ability to present complex analyses clearly to both technical and non-technical audiences, including executive leadership Proactive problem-solver who thrives in a fast-paced, entrepreneurial environment with shifting priorities Preferred Experience with marketing-mix modeling or attribution analysis, incrementality / holdout testing, or channel-efficiency modeling Familiarity with marketing data sources (GA4, ad platforms, Klaviyo, or attribution tools) Knowledge of statistical forecasting methods and time-series analysis Basic programming, scripting, or vibe-coding skills (Python, R, Claude Code) for data analysis and forecasting Experience with data visualization and analytics tools (e.g., Tableau, Power BI, Looker) in addition to Metabase Multi-market / international analytics experience Consumer electronics or hardware industry experience Benefits & Perks Generous stock option program - begins vesting after 1 year Comprehensive health plans - Aura pays 100% of the premium for employees and 50% for families 401(k) with match - Aura fully matches the first 4% of your salary contributed Lunch and snacks - In SF & NY Offices $150 monthly fitness allowance - gym, coaching, etc Flexible time off - and you’re required to take at least 10 days off each year Note: This role is for full-time, US-based employees. Benefits may differ for part-time or international roles.